India’s WTC final qualification scenarios (Updated)

We know International Cricket Council has introduced a test championship among the cricket-playing countries. The process is already yet to finish, and the finale is coming very soon. India, one of the cricket-leading countries, has started preparing for the next levels in the test championship. India’s way to the World Test Championship 2023 final has become simpler after the two-match series between Pakistan, and New Zealand ended in a 0-0 draw. Both New Zealand and Pakistan are now out of the competition for the WTC 2023 final for the two stalemates in the Test series between the two sides.

Scenarios at WTC stage:

Pakistan has played all of their matches in the WTC table. With 38.1 points, they are currently seventh in the points table. New Zealand, on the other side, is eighth with 27.27% points. The Kiwis also have one more series left, but even if they get a win for the final series against Sri Lanka by 2-0, they will finish with 38.46% points only. South Africa, Australia, India, and Sri Lanka are the four teams with a realistic probability of qualifying for the World Test Championship final. England also has an outside chance, but they need to have their fate in their own hands.

With 58.93% points, India is second in the standings at the moment, from 14 matches. They still have four matches left, which will be played from 9th February to 13th March against Australia at  India’s home ground.

Now, in this article, we will look at how India can qualify for the finale of the WTC 2023.

India can only qualify for the WTC final if the blue army wins at least three of the four Tests against Australia. If India wins three Tests, they will end the WTC campaign with 62.5% points or more. It will be enough for them to get a Top 2 spot. However, India needs to take care of their slow over-rate points deduction.

India can 100% qualify for the final if they grab the series by 4-0, but they will need to make sure there are no slow over-rate deductions when they lead by 3-0 or 3-1 against Australia. The scenario will become complex if Australia does not allow India 3 wins in the four-match series. In case India beats Australia by 2-0, they will have to hope that Sri Lanka does not win more than 1 match in the series against New Zealand.

In fact, a 1-0 win for India will also bring South Africa into the picture as the Rohit Sharma-led outfit will have to hope for the Proteas to face defeat in one of their remaining three matches. If India fails to win the series against Australia, they will virtually be eliminated from the WTC campaign. A draw will still keep some slim hopes alive if South Africa and Sri Lanka lose their matches. However, a series of defeats will likely knock India out of the race to the World Test Championship final. In the worst possibility of India losing 0-4, England will climb above the Rohit Sharma-led outfit in the World Test Championship standings.

Final-playing chances for teams other than India:

Sri Lanka holds a lesser chance of qualification and will have to get multiple results to go in its favour before the team play the last Test series of the World Test Championship cycle against New Zealand in March. With only 2 Tests remaining, Sri Lanka (PCT: 53.33) can hardly get to a PCT of 61.9.

Pakistan has 4 matches remaining – 2 against England and 2 against New Zealand at their home. With wins in all 4 matches, Pakistan can surprisingly jump to a PCT of 61.9.

New Zealand, England,  Bangladesh, and West Indies are officially out of the race, with the teams incapable of reaching the 60 PCT mark.

Updated points table for WTC:

Conclusion:

India has already played one Test series against Bangladesh and will conclude their World Test Championship league stage with a 4-match Test series against Australia at Home. India will need to win the remaining Test series against Australia 4-0, 3-0 or 3-1 to maintain their top 2 spots in the table.